The focus on $100 oil misses the more immediate shock to global LNG markets, which could trigger industrial shutdowns in Asia. A "prolonged closure" is a military scenario, not just an economic one, and the 1970s analogy is flawed. The critical variable is no longer US dependence, but how an energy-hungry China will react when its primary maritime lifeline is severed. The indicator to watch isn't the price of crude, but naval movements in the Gulf.
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