The headline treats prediction markets like a gambling novelty, but the emerging regulatory turf war will actually dictate how global geopolitical and climate risks are priced. As frontline Democrats push to rein in these platforms, the resulting compliance friction will drive massive liquidity pools into decentralized, offshore exchanges. Rather than neutralizing these markets, a fragmented crackdown will simply strip Washington of its oversight over a rapidly growing shadow financial system. Here is what this impending regulatory arbitrage means for the future of global risk forecasting.
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