The focus on immediate winners and losers misses the systemic risk. A conflict doesn't just disrupt oil markets; it threatens to shatter the Gulf's entire post-oil economic diversification model. The real story is whether decades of strategic planning can survive the initial shock.
A potential conflict in the Persian Gulf poses a threat far greater than immediate oil market disruptions. The prevailing focus on short-term winners and losers misses the systemic risk to the region's entire post-oil economic diversification model. This shifts the stakes from a temporary market event to a potential unraveling of decades of strategic planning by Gulf states.
The core issue is whether these ambitious national projects, designed to secure a post-oil future, can survive the initial shock of a major conflict. The emerging risk is that a war could shatter this long-term vision, rendering years of investment and planning obsolete. The question is not who profits from a war, but whether the Gulf's foundational economic model can endure it.
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